Iraqs first moves

Tom Houlihan · Post by **Tom Houlihan** » Sun Mar 16, 2003 5:20 pm

There's one thing that really bugs me about all this, and that is retribution. People worry that if the US attacks Iraq, that will trigger terrorist attacks against us, and other countries. My training and education tells me that if we don't destroy Hussein, then certain parties will perceive this as a weakness, and launch terrorist attacks against the US and other countries. Anybody besides me notice a trend here?

Commissar D, the Evil · Sun Mar 16, 2003 6:01 pm

Hi Tom, personally, I think that regardless of what we do with Hussein, America will be a terrorist target. Iraq may be a big issue now, but I suspect that the REAL issues are:

1. American support for Israel
2. Israeli oppression of the Palestinians
3. American support for Arab Dictators in the Gulf states.
4. The growth, worldwide, of Fundementalist Islam.

Whatever we do to Iraq, these four conditions that encourage terrorism will still exist, even if we turn Iraq into the Garden of Eden, which isn't likely.

Regards,
David

Christian · Post by **Christian** » Sun Mar 16, 2003 7:20 pm

David,

I think that you are right on target with your comments.

Hopefully, Palestinians will push for the necessary reform in their leadership and engage a peace process with the Israeli government. The US administration under President Clinton was very committed to brokering and agreement and Prime Minister Barak made significant concessions. In the end, Arafat let the opportunity pass by, partly because no other Arab state (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc.) demonstrated leadership and convinced Arafat to compromise.

It is also important to realize that most Arab governments have failed their citizens, as economies in the Middle-East are all in turmoil, there is little or no democracy, etc. Give people hope in a better future and you will eliminate the option provided by fundamentalism. In the end, it is going to require efforts from both Western countries but also governments in the region, to implement change and to harness militancy.

Christian

Commissar D, the Evil · Sun Mar 16, 2003 7:52 pm

Hi Christian, I agree with you totally. While the West must shoulder a portion of the blame, Muslims have been badly served by their leaders and their governments. Fundementalism is filling a void not of power, but of morality, a void that most Muslim countries' government have been unable or unwilling to fill because it might cost the power elites their control and their wealth.
It is as though a revolution is brewing in that area, one that might rival the intensity of the rise of Communism and Fascism in Western society during the last century.

Best Regards,
David

Christian · Post by **Christian** » Sun Mar 16, 2003 8:29 pm

It is as though a revolution is brewing in that area, one that might rival the intensity of the rise of Communism and Fascism in Western society during the last century.

David,

If there change in the Middle-East it can only be a controlled and progressive change.

Most Arab governments are not opposed to the war with Iraq, because of what might happen to Iraqis, but because of what could happen after Iraq is defeated and rebuilt. A democratic and thriving Iraq would be a major political blow to a lot of regimes in the region: Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, etc.

I sincerely hope that Western nations will be engaged in rebuilding a free, democratic and thriving Iraq, because it can be the catalyst for people in the region to demand more from their leaders and to build a better future.

Christian

Yves · Post by **Yves** » Mon Mar 17, 2003 11:02 am

Well, I guess the main issue is that Irak was about the only muslim country that was on its way to building a modern non religious society. The gulf war and the embargo have pretty much ended that, and the coming war is likely to open the flood gates to fundamentalist movements, which are already gaining ground.

Removing Saddam Hussein will sure rid the world of a dangerous dictator. But it won't do much in the war against terrorism except for providing the US with a base in the area. Moreover it is likely to exacerbate anti western feelings in the muslim world and lead to renewed terrorist activity.

The heart of muslim fundamentalism lies in Saudi Arabia which backs activism worlwide.

Now will there be an improvement for the Iraki people once Saddam Hussein is removed? That remains to be seen. There is for sure big money to be made in Irak by Western companies. Will that improve the lot of the average Irakis? that is far from sure. And the "reconstruction" of former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan are not particularly glorious exemples of what can be expected.

So well, we'll see what's gonna happen then. I suppose chances are the US will win an massive victory without too many losses. The problem is what the reactions in the muslim world will be......

Commissar D, the Evil · Mon Mar 17, 2003 11:30 am

Hi Yves, I think that all of your concerns are justified.

Cheers,
David

Baltasar · Post by **Baltasar** » Mon Mar 17, 2003 1:44 pm

Commissar, I'd like to add one important point to your list:

Hi Tom, personally, I think that regardless of what we do with Hussein, America will be a terrorist target. Iraq may be a big issue now, but I suspect that the REAL issues are:

1. American support for Israel
2. Israeli oppression of the Palestinians
3. American support for Arab Dictators in the Gulf states.
4. The growth, worldwide, of Fundementalist Islam.

5. American troops in Saudi Arabia, on the holy soil near Mekka.

Christian:

I sincerely hope that Western nations will be engaged in rebuilding a free, democratic and thriving Iraq, because it can be the catalyst for people in the region to demand more from their leaders and to build a better future.

I really do hope this would happen, but I don't think this even could be reality. This would require some decades and a ammount of money which nobody can guess.
And what will happen if the US pull out there as fast as they did in Afghanistan? (Of course they won't)

Christian · Post by **Christian** » Mon Mar 17, 2003 5:41 pm

Baltasar,

I really do hope this would happen, but I don't think this even could be reality. This would require some decades and a ammount of money which nobody can guess.
And what will happen if the US pull out there as fast as they did in Afghanistan? (Of course they won't)

Change will not be easy; however I believe that if a people are given hope and a better future, they will make the right choices. Ultimately the desire for change will have to come from the people. The old saying comes to mind: "You can lead the horse to water, but you can't make it drink".

The same is true with the Palestinians, if and when they realize how badly they have been served by their leadership, they will support change. At that moment both Western countries and regional governments should cease the opportunity and support the Palestinian and Israeli states to reach a permanent peace deal.

Again, this will not be easy and the US will not be able to do it alone. Hopefully other countries will support the effort, just as Germany is right now carrying some of the burden in Afghanistan.

Christian

Baltasar · Post by **Baltasar** » Tue Mar 18, 2003 12:54 am

I really hope this war will be over fast and with few casualties on both sides. The last thing we need is bloodbath since this would only feed the hate on the west.

Yves · Post by **Yves** » Thu Mar 20, 2003 7:10 am

The best thing to hope is that is that the Iraki will not put much of a fight and won't try to resist. Moreover it would be good to keep muslim activists out of the country. However foreign fanatic groups are likely to come and stir trouble, like happened in Afghanistan, Chechenya or former Yougoslavia. And I fear Saddam has already opened the flood gates.

I think most Irakis want that to be over as soon as possible and don't really give a @#% about who's gonna rule as long as they can go back to normal life.

Unfortunately there are plenty of people in muslim countries who want to see this degenerate into a blood bath and an unfortunate spark can make the whole damn thing explode.